An Update in Meteorology!


Well, we are a third of the way through the year, so here is an update on the first third of my attempt to destroy weather forecasting for all time. I'd have to say that I'm fairly pleased as of right now. I have faith that by the end of the year, I will have proven that weather forecasting is a worthless waste of time. Even more of a waste of time than me tracking the weather everyday for an entire year.

A more complete update will come at the end of the year, but for now, here is a brief recap of what has happened. To make the experimentmore accurate, I divided the competition into two parts: 1) the prediction of the daily high and low temperature, and 2) the prediction of daily weather system, i.e. rain, sun, partly cloudy.

Here are the results for the two categories through April:

Number of Correct Temperature Predictions
January February March April
Them
17
14
17
16
Magic Goat
14
11
8
13



As you can see, so far they are a bit ahead in the temperature category, but the year is still young. In the system category however, I am currently in the lead:

Number of Correct System Predictions
January February March April
Them
14
17
12
7
Me
15
15
15
14



For those of you who are a little more visual, I made a few charts to illustrate the progress so far. I felt that the best way to display this data was in a pie chart, so here you go:




If you seek more information, here are some other charts that you might find more helpful...

January High Temperatures

February High Temperatures

March High Temperatures

April High Temperatures